Florida GOP Early-Vote Edge Shrinks to 3 Points Before Election Day

Florida Republicans head into Tuesday’s election with a much thinner early-vote cushion than they had four years ago, and party leaders are openly urging voters who have not cast a ballot to show up on Election Day.

Republicans led Democrats by about 3 percentage points in early ballots cast as of Sunday morning, according to Axios. That margin is far below the GOP’s results in the last two general elections, Axios reported, and it comes even though Republicans now hold an 11-point voter registration advantage in the state.

Representative @michellesalzman says it’s time to get out and vote.

Go find your precinct and go vote Republican up and down the ballot.https://t.co/ojxxdY8dx6 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/rNL1rIUwN6

— Florida GOP (@FloridaGOP) November 1, 2026

More than 5.1 million Floridians had voted by Sunday morning, Florida Politics reported, citing the Axios analysis. The outlet said the split stood at 41% Republican, 38% Democratic and 22% no-party or minor-party voters, with Democrats ahead in mail ballots and Republicans ahead among in-person early voters. Those figures reflect the party registration of people who voted, not which candidates they chose.

DeSantis: turnout “not as strong as we would like”

Gov. Ron DeSantis sounded the alarm last week. “For Republicans, I don’t necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don’t think the turnout has been as strong as we would like to see. I think people need to get out and vote,” DeSantis told reporters in Crystal River, according to WUSF.

DeSantis said he does not believe Republican parents in their 30s and 40s are turning out at the same rate they did for his 2022 reelection, when school reopening and parents’ rights fights were fresh, WUSF reported. “I definitely think Republicans have some work to do,” he said, according to the station.

The governor’s race is the biggest worry

The top GOP concern is U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds’ campaign for governor against Democrat David Jolly, according to Axios, though most polls still show Donalds narrowly ahead. Donalds has raised $176 million to Jolly’s $28 million, Axios reported.

Republican turnout is weakest in parts of the Panhandle and rural North Florida, Axios reported, including many of the 17 counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary. In those counties, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below its 2022 level, compared with 1.1 points below in counties Donalds won, according to University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, as cited by Axios.

Internal estimates on both sides suggest Donalds could enter Election Day as many as 500,000 votes behind, which would require roughly a 2-to-1 Election Day margin to overcome, Florida Politics reported, citing Axios. Florida Politics also reported that Democrats have already passed their full 2022 early and mail totals in 15 counties, compared with four for Republicans.

The GOP’s closing message: vote

The Republican Party of Florida spent Sunday pushing a simple message. “Go find your precinct and go vote Republican up and down the ballot,” the party wrote in a post on X featuring state Rep. Michelle Salzman.

Republicans have traditionally won Election Day voting in Florida by wide margins, and the party is counting on that pattern again. But Florida Politics reported that Democratic strategist Steve Schale estimates roughly 60,000 more Republicans who voted on Election Day in 2022 have already voted early this year, which could shrink the Tuesday surge the GOP is counting on.

Polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday, according to Florida Politics. Florida voters can find their polling place through their county supervisor of elections office.

Reporting by Daily Beltway.